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Duncker & Humblot - Berlin: Journals: Understanding the Predictability of Excess Returns

Mutual Fund Essentials. Risk Management. Investing Essentials. Portfolio Management.

Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market

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What are Excess Returns Excess returns are investment returns from a security or portfolio that exceed the riskless rate on a security generally perceived to be risk free, such as a certificate of deposit or a government-issued bond. Compare Investment Accounts. Of course, there are a number of other measures of performance and so while one investor may favour a fund with high excess returns, others may view the same strategy as too risky. Excess return can be positive denoting outperformance relative to the benchmark or negative indicating underperformance.


  1. Excess Return;
  2. Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market.
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  7. For that reason, a fund with a beta of near 1 which indicates broad market exposure and volatility in line with the upward and downward movements of the benchmark might produce slightly negative excess returns. This is because total return includes fund expenses, so a performance similar to the benchmark would yield a slightly negative alpha after taking fees into account.

    Market Excess Returns, Variance and the Third Cumulant

    Partly on the back of volatile and risky global markets, the constant hunt for sources of excess return is behind the proliferation of new strategies, products and investment techniques. An offshoot of this is the rise of quantitative investing, which seeks to analyse data within a set of rules in order to identify market abnormalities and stock characteristics which offer the best risk-adjusted returns. And since many strategies are short term in nature, the quant business needs to continually adapt and innovate in order to find the next source of alpha, thereby driving the development of the entire investment industry.

    Even when risk aversion is constant, the latter can vary significantly with the relative share of stocks in the risky wealth portfolio, and with the beta of unobserved wealth on stocks. The model decomposes the predictable component in stock returns into two parts: the time-varying price of volatility and the time-varying volatility of returns.

    The relative share of stocks and the beta of the excluded components of wealth on stocks are instrumented by macroeconomic variables. The ratio of corporate profit over national income and the inflation rate ore found to be important forces in the dynamics of stock price volatility. Published: Journal of Econometrics , vol.

    Chapter 12 - SML, Excess Returns Against the S+P 500

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